Forest Alpha methodology

What the engine does, which models produced each figure, and where those models should not be trusted.

Model registry

Every simulation records the version of each model it used.

    Standing limitations

    These apply to every figure Forest Alpha produces today.

    • Growth, carbon, biodiversity and resilience adapters in this version are transparent placeholder models and have not been calibrated against Irish permanent sample plots.
    • Assortment splits are estimated from mean diameter rather than measured.
    • Timber prices, costs and carbon prices are user-entered assumptions, not live market data.
    • Uncertainty parameters are sampled independently; correlations between prices, growth and costs are not modelled.
    • Soil carbon, substitution benefits, grants and taxation are excluded.
    • Projections are not a forecast and are not financial advice.

    Forest Alpha produces modelled projections, not forecasts or financial advice. Growth, carbon, biodiversity and resilience adapters in this version are transparent placeholder models pending connection of validated external models. Every figure carries the assumptions and model version it was produced with.