Pilot demonstration — provisional and unvalidated

Sample stand — Ballinastoe Upper

Tier 2 — Professional Assessment · Wicklow · 42.8 ha · read-only sample

Pilot model — provisional and unvalidated.

Results support screening and professional review. They are not a silvicultural prescription, regulatory approval or substitute for field assessment.

What this sample is

Read this before interpreting anything below.

Every input on this page is illustrative. The stand record, the spatial layers and the rule thresholds are demonstration placeholders. Nothing here is derived from live national datasets, and no value has been calibrated or field-verified. The page exists so a reviewer can see the shape and honesty of an Operational v2.0 pilot output — which modules can report, where the evidence runs out, and which rules could not be evaluated.

CCFPI Ireland is a pilot-stage decision-support tool. Outputs are provisional and unvalidated, and they support professional judgement rather than replace it. Nothing produced by the platform is a silvicultural prescription, a regulatory approval or a substitute for field assessment by a qualified forester.

Outcome class

Field information insufficient.

An outcome class is generated only where the precedence rules have sufficient evidence. Otherwise the assessment returns “Field information insufficient.” rather than an optimistic or pessimistic guess.

Exact rules and evidence used

  • · Precedence rule applied: Required evidence is missing for: site_capability, windthrow_risk, climate_resilience, operational_feasibility, environmental_sensitivity. Missing input is never scored as unfavourable input.
  • · Modules not in a computed state: Site Capability (evidence insufficient); Stand Transformation Readiness (not calibrated); Dynamic Windthrow Risk (evidence insufficient); Climate Resilience (evidence insufficient); Operational and Financial Feasibility (evidence insufficient); Environmental and Regulatory Sensitivity (evidence insufficient)
  • · Rules evaluated: 1 triggered, 10 not evaluable pending calibration.
  • · No composite score is produced. The six modules are reported separately and are never averaged.

Evidence position

What this sample assessment rests on.

50
Values supplied
8
Required gaps
15
Optional gaps
84%
Required completeness

Height-to-diameter ratio: 89.4 — 24.5 m × 100 ÷ 27.4 cm = 89.4

Six-module results

Site Capability

Whether the physical site can support a continuous-cover structure at all: terrain, soil, moisture and productivity.

Evidence insufficientv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not published1 required variable is missing. Missing evidence is reported as a gap and never replaced with an average or a default.

Risk direction: Direction not established — capability transforms are uncalibrated.

Site profile

  • · Elevation: 240 m
  • · Slope: 14 degrees
  • · Aspect: 205 degrees
  • · Soil texture: Loam over till
  • · Drainage: Imperfect

Strongest site characteristics

Cannot be identified: ranking site characteristics requires calibrated transforms. Supplied values are listed above without a favourability judgement.

Limiting site characteristics

Cannot be identified until the site transforms are calibrated. The model does not guess which factor limits the site.

Mapped factors

  • · elevation — Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · slope — Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · aspect_circular — Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · topographic_exposure — Demonstration exposure index (demonstration placeholder)
  • · soil_depth — Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · soil_texture — Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · soil_drainage — Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · peat_presence — Demonstration peat mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · mean_wind_climate — Demonstration wind surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · extreme_gust_exposure — Demonstration gust surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · drought_exposure — Demonstration climate baseline (demonstration placeholder)
  • · storm_exposure — Demonstration climate baseline (demonstration placeholder)
  • · waterlogging_risk — Demonstration climate and soils overlay (demonstration placeholder)
  • · slope_operability — Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • · erosion_risk — Demonstration terrain and soils overlay (demonstration placeholder)
  • · rooting_depth — Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · drainage — Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • · aspect_vs_prevailing_wind — Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)

Evidence gaps

  • · Fertility / productivity (required)
  • · Waterlogging (optional)
  • · Erosion susceptibility (optional)
Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: moderateOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: moderateSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (0 triggered, 0 not evaluable)

No rules are declared against this module.

Evidence and provenance (8 supplied)
  • Elevation: 240 mmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Slope: 14 degreesmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Aspect (circular): 205 degreesmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Topographic exposure: 42 indexmodelled, Demonstration exposure index (demonstration placeholder)
  • Soil depth: 45 cmmodelled, Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • Soil texture: Loam over tillmodelled, Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • Soil drainage: Imperfectmodelled, Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • Peat presence and depth: 0 cmmodelled, Demonstration peat mapping (demonstration placeholder)

Recommended field checks

  • · Obtain Fertility / productivity — National soils and subsoils mapping; Indicative peat mapping; Forest inventory; Management records

Stand Transformation Readiness

Whether the existing crop can be manipulated safely towards an irregular structure: stability, structure, regeneration potential and health.

Not calibratedv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not publishedEvidence is recorded, but this module has no calibrated transforms, weights or thresholds, so no score may be published.

Risk direction: Direction not established — readiness transforms are uncalibrated.

Structure profile

  • · Dominant species: Sitka spruce
  • · Stand age: 32 years
  • · Basal area: 41.2 m²/ha
  • · Stocking: 690 stems/ha
  • · Diameter distribution: Broadening
  • · Canopy differentiation: Moderate

Stability indicators

  • · Top height: 24.5 m
  • · Mean DBH: 27.4 cm
  • · Height-to-diameter ratio: 89.4 ratio
  • · Previous wind damage: Isolated stems
  • · Edge exposure: One exposed edge

Thinning readiness

  • · Thinning history: Thinned regularly
  • · Year of last thinning: 2022 year
  • · Last thinning intensity: Light

Regeneration status

  • · Regeneration present: Occasional
  • · Regeneration species: Sitka spruce, occasional rowan
  • · Deer pressure: Moderate

Missing inventory

All catalogued inventory variables were supplied.

Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: highOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: highSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (1 triggered, 2 not evaluable)
  • R-STAB-01Tall, slender, shallow-rooted, recently exposed standNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: High stand height AND poor height-to-diameter ratio AND shallow rooting depth AND recent edge exposure.

    Required variables: top_height, hd_ratio, rooting_depth, edge_exposure

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    A stand in this condition cannot absorb crown-opening safely, regardless of how capable the site is. Site capability must not be allowed to lift transformation readiness.

  • R-DATA-01Stand inventory absent at screening tierNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: A screening assessment carries no measured or reported stand inventory.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Transformation readiness cannot be inferred from spatial data. The module returns evidence-insufficient rather than a low score.

  • DEMO-STAB-01Demonstration: slender stand flagTriggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdlimiting

    Condition: Height-to-diameter ratio at or above a mocked value of 80.

    Required variables: hd_ratio

    Triggered on a mocked demonstration threshold. Not a scientifically supported finding.

    Interface test only. The real stability threshold has not been agreed and will be species-, height- and exposure-dependent.

Evidence and provenance (16 supplied)
  • Species composition: Sitka sprucemeasured, Illustrative stand walkthrough
  • Stand age: 32 yearsreported, Illustrative planting record
  • Top height: 24.5 mmeasured, Illustrative sample plots (n = 6)
  • Mean DBH: 27.4 cmmeasured, Illustrative sample plots (n = 6)
  • Basal area: 41.2 m²/hameasured, Illustrative sample plots (n = 6)
  • Stocking density: 690 stems/hameasured, Illustrative sample plots (n = 6)
  • Height-to-diameter ratio: 89.4 ratiomeasured, Derived within the assessment
  • Thinning history: Thinned regularlyreported, Illustrative management file
  • Years since last thinning: 2022 yearreported, Illustrative management file
  • Previous wind damage: Isolated stemsreported, Illustrative management file
  • Diameter distribution: Broadeningmeasured, Illustrative plot tally
  • Canopy differentiation: Moderatereported, Illustrative field observation
  • Natural regeneration present: Occasionalreported, Illustrative field observation
  • Species diversity: Occasional birch on the western edge (~5%)reported, Illustrative owner record
  • Edge condition: One exposed edgereported, Illustrative field observation
  • Forest health: Minor issuesreported, Illustrative field observation

Dynamic Windthrow Risk

Wind risk evaluated dynamically against intervention scenarios rather than as a static site score.

Evidence insufficientv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not published1 required variable is missing. Missing evidence is reported as a gap and never replaced with an average or a default.

Risk direction: Direction not established — scenario response functions are uncalibrated.

Exposure inputs

  • · Mean wind climate: 7.4 m/s
  • · Extreme gust exposure: 32 m/s
  • · Topographic exposure: 42 index
  • · Elevation: 240 m

Stand and soil inputs

  • · Stand height: 24.5 m
  • · Height-to-diameter ratio: 89.4 ratio
  • · Rooting depth: 45 cm
  • · Drainage: Imperfect
  • · Previous storm damage: Isolated stems

Evidence gaps

  • · Previous storm damage (required)
Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: moderateOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: moderateSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (0 triggered, 2 not evaluable)
  • R-STAB-02Recent thinning plus neighbouring clear-fellNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Thinning within the acclimation period AND clear-fell on an exposed neighbouring boundary.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Both create new turbulent edges; the combined effect is not the sum of the individual effects.

  • R-STAB-03Documented storm damage in the current rotationNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Previous storm damage recorded above the agreed severity class.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Demonstrated instability outweighs modelled wind exposure.

  • DEMO-WIND-01Demonstration: recorded wind damage flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdlimiting

    Condition: Previous wind damage recorded as localised patches or extensive.

    Required variables: previous_wind_damage

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Damage severity classes are not yet defined against a validated scale.

Evidence and provenance (13 supplied)
  • Mean wind climate: 7.4 m/smodelled, Demonstration wind surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Extreme gust exposure: 32 m/smodelled, Demonstration gust surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Elevation: 240 mmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Topographic exposure: 42 indexmodelled, Demonstration exposure index (demonstration placeholder)
  • Slope: 14 degreesmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Aspect relative to prevailing winds: 205 degreesmodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Rooting depth: 45 cmmodelled, Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • Drainage: Imperfectmodelled, Demonstration soils mapping (demonstration placeholder)
  • Stand height: 24.5 mmeasured, Illustrative sample plots (n = 6)
  • Height-to-diameter ratio: 89.4 ratiomeasured, Derived within the assessment
  • Edge exposure: One exposed edgereported, Illustrative field observation
  • Recent thinning: 2022 yearreported, Illustrative management file
  • Neighbouring clear-fell: Noreported, Illustrative field observation

Recommended field checks

  • · Obtain Previous storm damage — Forest inventory; Management records; Field inspection; Measured plot data

Climate Resilience

Whether the site and species remain viable across baseline, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s horizons.

Evidence insufficientv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not published2 required variables are missing. Missing evidence is reported as a gap and never replaced with an average or a default.

Risk direction: Direction not established — climate projections are placeholders.

Baseline climate inputs

  • · Drought exposure: 18 index
  • · Storm exposure: 61 index
  • · Waterlogging risk: Moderate

Evidence gaps

  • · Heat exposure (optional)
  • · Frost exposure (optional)
  • · Fire weather (optional)
  • · Current species suitability (required)
  • · Future species suitability (required)
  • · Enrichment species options (optional)
Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: moderateOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: lowSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (0 triggered, 1 not evaluable)
  • R-CLIM-01Species suitability declining by the 2050sNot evaluable — calibration requiredadvisory

    Condition: Current species suitability acceptable AND future suitability declining at the 2050s horizon.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Transformation should be planned around enrichment species rather than the existing crop alone.

Evidence and provenance (3 supplied)
  • Drought exposure: 18 indexmodelled, Demonstration climate baseline (demonstration placeholder)
  • Waterlogging risk: Moderatemodelled, Demonstration climate and soils overlay (demonstration placeholder)
  • Storm exposure: 61 indexmodelled, Demonstration climate baseline (demonstration placeholder)

Recommended field checks

  • · Obtain Current species suitability — Species suitability modelling; Forest inventory; Management records
  • · Obtain Future species suitability — Downscaled species suitability projections

Operational and Financial Feasibility

Whether repeated small-scale interventions are physically and economically deliverable on this holding.

Evidence insufficientv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not published2 required variables are missing. Missing evidence is reported as a gap and never replaced with an average or a default.

Risk direction: Direction not established — no cost or operability model is calibrated.

Access

  • · Road access notes: Forest road along the eastern boundary; racks retained from the 2022 entry.

Extraction

No extraction route information supplied.

Terrain operability

  • · Slope operability: Ground-based machinery feasible
  • · Slope: 14 degrees

Indicative intervention complexity

Not evaluable. Complexity depends on access, terrain and stand stability thresholds that are not yet calibrated.

Missing cost evidence

  • · Distance to timber markets
  • · Harvesting cost
  • · Regeneration cost
  • · Expected timber flow

Grant information

Placeholder. Scheme eligibility and payment rates are not connected in the pilot and no financial return is calculated.

Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: highOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: lowSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (0 triggered, 1 not evaluable)
  • R-OPS-01No viable extraction routeNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Extraction distance or machinery access outside the operable range for repeated small interventions.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Continuous cover depends on frequent light entries; without access the system cannot be maintained.

Evidence and provenance (4 supplied)
  • Forest area: 42.8 hareported, Parcel details supplied by the assessor
  • Road access: Forest road along the eastern boundary; racks retained from the 2022 entry.reported, Illustrative management file
  • Slope operability: Ground-based machinery feasiblemodelled, Demonstration terrain surface (demonstration placeholder)
  • Fencing and deer management: Moderatereported, Illustrative field observation

Recommended field checks

  • · Obtain Extraction distance — Forest road network; Terrain routing
  • · Obtain Machinery access — Field inspection; Measured plot data; Forest inventory; Management records

Environmental and Regulatory Sensitivity

Legal, designation, water, peat, heritage and landscape constraints, and the consenting burden they create.

Evidence insufficientv2.0.0-draft.1

Score: Not published2 required variables are missing. Missing evidence is reported as a gap and never replaced with an average or a default.

Risk direction: Direction not established — sensitivity classes are not weighted.

Mapped sensitivities

  • · Designated site overlap: Adjacent
  • · Nearest watercourse: 120 m
  • · Recorded archaeology: None recorded
  • · Erosion risk: Low

Environmental opportunities

No opportunity assessment supplied.

Consent considerations

  • · Consent notes: Thinning licence renewal anticipated before any further entry.

Potential field surveys

  • · Habitat and Annex feature walkover
  • · Watercourse and drainage walkover
  • · Peat depth probing on any suspected peat
  • · Archaeological features check

Evidence gaps

  • · Annex habitats (required)
  • · Peat (required)
  • · Biodiversity opportunity (optional)
  • · Carbon implications (optional)
  • · Landscape sensitivity (optional)
Confidence dimensions — band: insufficient

Confidence is the weakest assessed evidence dimension, not an average. No numeric confidence value is published while the model is uncalibrated.

  • Native dataset resolution: insufficientCoarsest native resolution across the contributing datasets.
  • Processing resolution: insufficientAnalysis grid compared with native capture resolution; resampling does not add detail.
  • Dataset age: moderateOldest contributing dataset year.
  • Measured versus modelled: lowMeasurement basis recorded per observation.
  • Inventory completeness: lowSupplied required variables against the module specification.
  • Field verification: lowAssessment tier and recorded verifier.
  • Validation coverage: insufficientThis module has not been calibrated or validated on Irish stands.
  • Sensitivity to uncertain inputs: not assessedSensitivity analysis cannot run until the variable transforms are calibrated.
Rules (0 triggered, 3 not evaluable)
  • R-ENV-01Designated site or Annex habitat overlapNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: The parcel intersects a protected site or Annex habitat where the intervention is not permissible without consent.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    A legal constraint is absolute and cannot be traded against a favourable score.

  • R-ENV-02Deep peatNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: Peat depth above the agreed threshold.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Carbon, hydrology and machine-trafficability constraints coincide on deep peat.

  • R-ENV-03Riparian setback intersectionNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Operations proposed inside a riparian setback.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Intervention may proceed only under the applicable water-protection prescription.

  • DEMO-ENV-01Demonstration: deep peat flagNot evaluable — required evidence missingDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdblocking

    Condition: Peat depth at or above a mocked value of 50 cm.

    Required variables: peat

    Cannot be evaluated because required evidence is missing: peat.

    Interface test only. The operative peat depth threshold is a policy and carbon question, not a mocked number.

  • DEMO-ENV-02Demonstration: designated site overlap flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdblocking

    Condition: Designated site overlap recorded as partial or full.

    Required variables: protected_sites

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Actual consenting requirements are determined by the competent authority, not this model.

  • DEMO-OPS-01Demonstration: watercourse proximity flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdadvisory

    Condition: Nearest watercourse within a mocked distance of 50 m.

    Required variables: watercourses

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Statutory setbacks are defined in published water-protection guidance.

Evidence and provenance (6 supplied)
  • Watercourses: 120 mmodelled, Illustrative hydrology screening
  • Riparian setbacks: Nomodelled, Illustrative hydrology screening
  • Protected sites: Adjacentmodelled, Illustrative designation screening
  • Archaeology: None recordedmodelled, Illustrative heritage screening
  • Erosion risk: Lowmodelled, Demonstration terrain and soils overlay (demonstration placeholder)
  • Consent complexity: Thinning licence renewal anticipated before any further entry.reported, Illustrative owner record

Recommended field checks

  • · Obtain Annex habitats — Protected-site designations; Habitat mapping; Archaeological record
  • · Obtain Peat — National soils and subsoils mapping; Indicative peat mapping

Wind scenario comparison

Scenarios show the evidence each intervention depends on. No windthrow probability is produced.

  • No interventionEvidence insufficient

    No windthrow probability is produced. Probabilistic output requires calibrated scenario response functions validated against Irish damage records.

    Baseline exposure of the stand as it currently stands. No direction of change is published until the scenario response functions are calibrated.

  • Light thinningEvidence insufficient

    No windthrow probability is produced. Probabilistic output requires calibrated scenario response functions validated against Irish damage records.

    Expected to alter edge and crown exposure. The magnitude and even the sign of the change are uncalibrated in the pilot.

  • Moderate thinningEvidence insufficient

    No windthrow probability is produced. Probabilistic output requires calibrated scenario response functions validated against Irish damage records.

    Larger structural change with a longer acclimation period. Not quantified in the pilot.

  • Heavy thinningEvidence insufficient

    No windthrow probability is produced. Probabilistic output requires calibrated scenario response functions validated against Irish damage records.

    Greatest structural change and the largest acclimation demand. Not quantified in the pilot.

Decision profile

Module positions are reported side by side. No composite score is produced.

ModuleScore stateScoreRisk directionConfidencePrincipal limiting variableMissing evidenceAction required
Site CapabilityEvidence insufficientNot publishedDirection not established — capability transforms are uncalibrated.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transforms1 required: Fertility / productivityCollect the missing required evidence
Stand Transformation ReadinessNot calibratedNot publishedDirection not established — readiness transforms are uncalibrated.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transformsNone required outstandingAwait module calibration
Dynamic Windthrow RiskEvidence insufficientNot publishedDirection not established — scenario response functions are uncalibrated.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transforms1 required: Previous storm damageCollect the missing required evidence
Climate ResilienceEvidence insufficientNot publishedDirection not established — climate projections are placeholders.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transforms2 required: Current species suitability, Future species suitabilityCollect the missing required evidence
Operational and Financial FeasibilityEvidence insufficientNot publishedDirection not established — no cost or operability model is calibrated.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transforms2 required: Extraction distance, Machinery accessCollect the missing required evidence
Environmental and Regulatory SensitivityEvidence insufficientNot publishedDirection not established — sensitivity classes are not weighted.insufficientNot identified — requires calibrated transforms2 required: Annex habitats, PeatCollect the missing required evidence

v2.0 does not publish a single blended index. Averaging capability, stand stability, wind risk, climate outlook, feasibility and regulatory sensitivity hides the constraint that governs the decision, so the six module results and the decision profile are reported separately.

Rule states

Demonstration rules with mocked thresholds, shown so their evaluation status is visible.

  • R-STAB-01Tall, slender, shallow-rooted, recently exposed standNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: High stand height AND poor height-to-diameter ratio AND shallow rooting depth AND recent edge exposure.

    Required variables: top_height, hd_ratio, rooting_depth, edge_exposure

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    A stand in this condition cannot absorb crown-opening safely, regardless of how capable the site is. Site capability must not be allowed to lift transformation readiness.

  • R-DATA-01Stand inventory absent at screening tierNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: A screening assessment carries no measured or reported stand inventory.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Transformation readiness cannot be inferred from spatial data. The module returns evidence-insufficient rather than a low score.

  • DEMO-STAB-01Demonstration: slender stand flagTriggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdlimiting

    Condition: Height-to-diameter ratio at or above a mocked value of 80.

    Required variables: hd_ratio

    Triggered on a mocked demonstration threshold. Not a scientifically supported finding.

    Interface test only. The real stability threshold has not been agreed and will be species-, height- and exposure-dependent.

  • R-STAB-02Recent thinning plus neighbouring clear-fellNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Thinning within the acclimation period AND clear-fell on an exposed neighbouring boundary.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Both create new turbulent edges; the combined effect is not the sum of the individual effects.

  • R-STAB-03Documented storm damage in the current rotationNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Previous storm damage recorded above the agreed severity class.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Demonstrated instability outweighs modelled wind exposure.

  • DEMO-WIND-01Demonstration: recorded wind damage flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdlimiting

    Condition: Previous wind damage recorded as localised patches or extensive.

    Required variables: previous_wind_damage

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Damage severity classes are not yet defined against a validated scale.

  • R-CLIM-01Species suitability declining by the 2050sNot evaluable — calibration requiredadvisory

    Condition: Current species suitability acceptable AND future suitability declining at the 2050s horizon.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Transformation should be planned around enrichment species rather than the existing crop alone.

  • R-OPS-01No viable extraction routeNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Extraction distance or machinery access outside the operable range for repeated small interventions.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Continuous cover depends on frequent light entries; without access the system cannot be maintained.

  • R-ENV-01Designated site or Annex habitat overlapNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: The parcel intersects a protected site or Annex habitat where the intervention is not permissible without consent.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    A legal constraint is absolute and cannot be traded against a favourable score.

  • R-ENV-02Deep peatNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: Peat depth above the agreed threshold.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Carbon, hydrology and machine-trafficability constraints coincide on deep peat.

  • R-ENV-03Riparian setback intersectionNot evaluable — calibration requiredlimiting

    Condition: Operations proposed inside a riparian setback.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    Intervention may proceed only under the applicable water-protection prescription.

  • DEMO-ENV-01Demonstration: deep peat flagNot evaluable — required evidence missingDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdblocking

    Condition: Peat depth at or above a mocked value of 50 cm.

    Required variables: peat

    Cannot be evaluated because required evidence is missing: peat.

    Interface test only. The operative peat depth threshold is a policy and carbon question, not a mocked number.

  • DEMO-ENV-02Demonstration: designated site overlap flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdblocking

    Condition: Designated site overlap recorded as partial or full.

    Required variables: protected_sites

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Actual consenting requirements are determined by the competent authority, not this model.

  • DEMO-OPS-01Demonstration: watercourse proximity flagEvaluated — not triggeredDemonstration rule — mocked thresholdadvisory

    Condition: Nearest watercourse within a mocked distance of 50 m.

    Required variables: watercourses

    Evaluated against the mocked demonstration threshold and not triggered.

    Interface test only. Statutory setbacks are defined in published water-protection guidance.

  • R-DATA-02Required variables incompleteNot evaluable — calibration requiredblocking

    Condition: Any module lacks a required variable and no verified substitute is supplied.

    Required variables: Not yet expressed as a machine predicate.

    Not evaluable — calibration required. The rule is declared and its required variables are listed, but no threshold has been agreed, so it does not fire and is not skipped.

    A missing input is not the same as an unfavourable input and must never be scored as one.

Provisional transformation pathway

Phases for discussion with a forestry professional. Not a prescription.

Provisional pathway. No thinning percentage, entry cycle or removal volume is prescribed: intervention intensity cannot be specified before the stability rules are calibrated and a professional stability assessment has been carried out.

Verify

  • PA-01Obtain Fertility / productivity for Site CapabilityImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Site Capability cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    site capability
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: National soils and subsoils mapping; Indicative peat mapping; Forest inventory; Management records
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-02Obtain Previous storm damage for Dynamic Windthrow RiskImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Dynamic Windthrow Risk cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    windthrow risk
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Forest inventory; Management records; Field inspection; Measured plot data
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-03Obtain Current species suitability for Climate ResilienceImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Climate Resilience cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    climate resilience
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Species suitability modelling; Forest inventory; Management records
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-04Obtain Future species suitability for Climate ResilienceImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Climate Resilience cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    climate resilience
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Downscaled species suitability projections
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-05Obtain Extraction distance for Operational and Financial FeasibilityImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Operational and Financial Feasibility cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    operational feasibility
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Forest road network; Terrain routing
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-06Obtain Machinery access for Operational and Financial FeasibilityImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Operational and Financial Feasibility cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    operational feasibility
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Field inspection; Measured plot data; Forest inventory; Management records
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-07Obtain Annex habitats for Environmental and Regulatory SensitivityImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Environmental and Regulatory Sensitivity cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    environmental sensitivity
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: Protected-site designations; Habitat mapping; Archaeological record
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.
  • PA-08Obtain Peat for Environmental and Regulatory SensitivityImmediateBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Environmental and Regulatory Sensitivity cannot leave the "evidence insufficient" state while this required variable is absent.
    Source module:
    environmental sensitivity
    Supporting evidence:
    Candidate sources: National soils and subsoils mapping; Indicative peat mapping
    Professional review:
    A forestry professional should confirm the measurement protocol and record the evidence basis.

Stabilise

  • PA-09Consider low-intensity intervention subject to professional stability assessmentBefore any interventionBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    Any crown opening changes the wind loading on the residual stand. Intensity cannot be specified before the stability rules are calibrated.
    Source module:
    windthrow risk
    Supporting evidence:
    Height-to-diameter ratio, rooting depth, edge exposure and previous damage records, where supplied.
    Professional review:
    Stability assessment by a qualified forester before any entry.

Prepare

  • PA-10Plan extraction racks, drainage protection and deer management ahead of any structural workPlannedNot started
    Rationale:
    Continuous cover depends on repeated light entries, which require permanent access and controlled browsing.
    Source module:
    operational feasibility
    Supporting evidence:
    Access notes, terrain operability and deer pressure, where supplied.
    Professional review:
    Operational planning review, including water-protection measures.

Begin transition

  • PA-11Defer the first transformation entry until the module evidence positions are resolvedPlannedBlocked pending evidence
    Rationale:
    No outcome class can be reached while modules remain evidence-insufficient or uncalibrated.
    Source module:
    profile
    Supporting evidence:
    Module state matrix in the decision profile.
    Professional review:
    Verified-tier assessment with named professional verification.

Monitor

  • PA-12Inspect edges after every intervention and after named storms; re-measure height and DBH each inventory cycleOngoingAvailable now
    Rationale:
    Stability changes fastest immediately after an entry and after new edges are created nearby.
    Source module:
    windthrow risk
    Supporting evidence:
    Standing monitoring practice; not a model output.
    Professional review:
    Record findings for the next assessment cycle.

Review

  • PA-13Repeat the assessment when new evidence, calibration or datasets become availablePlannedAvailable now
    Rationale:
    The pilot model is unvalidated; conclusions should be revisited as it is calibrated.
    Source module:
    profile
    Supporting evidence:
    Model version and calibration state recorded with every assessment.
    Professional review:
    Professional reviewer feedback is invited through the pilot feedback form.

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